2018

  • Wetterhall, F., Di Giuseppe, F. (2018),The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (6), pp. 3409-3420.

  • Arnal, L., Cloke, H.L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., Pappenberger, F. (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4), pp. 2057-2072.

2017

  • Lavers, D.A., Zsoter, E., Richardson, D.S., Pappenberger, F.(2017) An assessment of the ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport during boreal winter, Weather and Forecasting, 32 (4), pp. 1667-1674.

  • Dottori, F., Kalas, M., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., Feyen, L. (2017) An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 17 (7), pp. 1111-1126.

  • Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P.J., Wetterhall, F. (2017) How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?,
    Environmental Research Letters, 12 (4), art. no. 044006,

2016

  • Snow, A.D., Christensen, S.D., Swain, N.R., Nelson, E.J., Ames, D.P., Jones, N.L., Ding, D., Noman, N.S., David, C.H., Pappenberger, F., Zsoter, E. (2016), A High-Resolution National-Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 52 (4), pp. 950-964.

  • Skøien, J.O., Bogner, K., Salamon, P., Smith, P., Pappenberger, F. (2016) Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts, IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports, 373, pp. 109-114.

  • Smith, P.J., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Thielen Del Pozo, J., Krzeminski, B., Salamon, P., Muraro, D., Kalas, M., Baugh, C. (2016) On the Operational Implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective, pp. 313-348.

  • Kauffeldt, A., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Salamon, P., Thielen, J. (2016) Technical review of large-scale hydrological models for implementation in operational flood forecasting schemes on continental level, Environmental Modelling and Software, 75, pp. 68-76.

2015

  • Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.L., Parker, D.J., Wetterhall, F., Richardson, D.S., Thielen, J. (2015), The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe, Environmental Science and Policy, 51, pp. 278-291.

  • Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M.H., Cloke, H.L., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Bogner, K., Mueller, A., Salamon, P. (2015), How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction, Journal of Hydrology, 522, pp. 697-713.

  • Alfieri, L., Thielen, J. (2015) A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning. Meteorol. Appl., 22(1), 3–13, doi:10.1002/met.1328.

  • Raynaud, D., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Burek, P., Anquetin, S., Alfieri, L. (2015) A dynamic runoff co-efficient to improve flash flood early warning in Europe: Evaluation on the 2013 central European floods in Germany. Meteorological Applications, 22(3), 410–418, doi:10.1002/met.1469.

2014

  • Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., Salamon, P. (2014) Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe,
    Journal of Hydrology, 517, pp. 913-922.

  • Wanders, N., Karssenberg, D., De Roo, A., De Jong, S.M., Bierkens, M.F.P. (2014) The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18 (6), pp. 2343-2357.

  • Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F. (2014) The extreme runoff index for flood early warning in Europe, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14 (6), pp. 1505-1515.

  • Bogner, K., Meißner, D., Pappenberger, F., Salamon, P., (2014) Correction of model and forecast errors and the estimation of the predictive uncertainty of a probabilisticflood forecasting system [Korrektur von Modell- und Vorhersagefehlern und Abschätzung der prädiktiven Unsicherheit in einem probabilistischen Hochwasservorhersagesystem], Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 58 (2), pp. 73-75.

2013

  • Thirel, G., Salamon, P., Burek, P., Kalas, M.(2013) Assimilation of MODIS snow cover area data in a distributed hydrological model using the particle filter, Remote Sensing, 5 (11), pp. 5825-5850.

  • Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H.L., Thielen-Del Pozo, J., Balabanova, S., Daňhelka, J., Vogelbacher, A., Salamon, P., Carrasco, I., Cabrera-Tordera, A.J., Corzo-Toscano, M., Garcia-Padilla, M., Garcia-Sanchez, R.J., Ardilouze, C., Jurela, S., Terek, B., Csik, A., Casey, J., Stankunavičius, G., Ceres, V., Sprokkereef, E., Stam, J., Anghel, E., Vladikovic, D., Alionte Eklund, C., Hjerdt, N., Djerv, H., Holmberg, F., Nilsson, J., Nyström, K., Sušnik, M., Hazlinger, M., Holubecka, M. (2013) HESS Opinions: Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (11), pp. 4389-4399.

  • F. Pappenberger, Stephens E., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., van Andel, S.J., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L.,(2013) Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication, Hydrological Processes, Special Issue, Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS), Volume 27, Issue 1, pages 132–146

2012 and earlier

  • Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F. (2011) Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system, Water Resources Research, 47 (7).
  • Burek P, Thielen Del Pozo J, Thiemig V, De Roo A. Das Europäische Hochwasser-Frühwarnsystem (EFAS). Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft 4/11; 2011
  • Pappenberger F, Thielen Del Pozo J, Del Medico M. (2011) The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 25 (7);  p. 1091–1113. JRC55592
  • Thielen J., Bartholmes J., Ramos M.-H, de Roo A. (2009) The European Flood Alert System - Part 1: Concept and development, Hydro. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 125-140
  • J. C. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, M. H. Ramos, and S. Gentilini (2009) The European Flood Alert System EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 141–153
  • M.-H. Ramos, J. Thielen and A. de Roo (2009) Prévision hydrologique d'ensemble et alerte avec le système européen d'alerte aux crues (EFAS) : cas des crues du bassin du Danube en août 2005, TRAITÉ D’HYDRAULIQUE ENVIRONNEMENTALE ; de la goutte de pluie jusqu’à la mer, Ed. (J.-M. Tanguy), HERMES, Vol. 7., HERMES, Lavoisier
  • Cloke H., Thielen J., Pappenberger F., Nobert S., Balint G., Edlund C., Koistinen A., de Saint-Aubin C., Sprokkereef E., Viel C., Salamon P., and Buizza R. (2009) Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting ; ECMWF Newsletter, Autumn 2009, 121, 20-24
  • R. Buizza, F. Pappenberger, P. Salamon, J. Thielen and A. de Roo (2009). EPS/EFAS probabilistic flood prediction for Northern Italy: the case of 30 April 2009 ECMWF Newsletter No. 120 – Summer 2009, p 10-16
  • Pappenberger F, Bartholmes J, Thielen J, CLOKE HL, Buizza R, de Roo A (2008) New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Letters. 35, L10404, doi:10.1029/2008GL033837,
  • Younis J., M.-H. Ramos and J. Thielen (2008) EFAS forecasts for the March–April 2006 flood in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin – a case study, Atmos. Sci. Let. 9:88-94
  • Bartholmes, J., Thielen J., and Kalas M. (2008) "Forecasting medium-range flood hazard on European scale", Georisk Vol.2, No.4, December 2008, 0-00
  • Kalas, M., Ramos, M.-H., Thielen, J., Babiakova, G. (2008) Evaluation of the medium-range European flood forecasts for the March–April 2006 flood in the Morava River, J. Hydrol. Hydromech J. Hydrol. Hydromech, 56, 2008, 2
  • Ramos, M.-H., Bartholmes, J., Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2007) Development of decision support products based on ensemble forecasts in the European flood alert system, Atmospheric Science Letters 8 (4), pp. 113–119
  • Demeritt, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Ramos, M.-H. (2007) Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting, Environmental Hazards 7 (2), pp. 115–127
  • Gouweleeuw B.T., Thielen, J., Franchello G., de Roo APJ., Buizza R. (2005) Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 365-380