Verification December 2023

Figure 1. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 1 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.
Figure 1. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 1 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.
Figure 2. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 3 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.
Figure 2. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 3 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.
Figure 3. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 5 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.
Figure 3. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 5 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.
Figure 4. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 10 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.
Figure 4. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 10 day for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.

Figures 1-4 shows the EFAS headline score, the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for lead times 1, 3, 5, and 10 days for December 2023 across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 1000km2. A CRPSS of 1 indicates perfect skill, 0 indicates that the performance is equal to that of the reference, and any value <0 (shown in yellow on the maps) indicates the skill is worse than the reference. Climatology is used as the reference forecast.

These maps indicate that across most of Europe forecasts are more skilful than climatology at both lead times. Regions shown in green/blue are those where EFAS forecasts are more skilful than climatology, with darker shading indicating better performance.

 

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